Here is a paper that confidently argues against the notion of a near-term oil shortage: http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/R2004-171.pdf. By M.A. Adelman, an economics professor at MIT, 2004.
“It is commonly asked, when will the world’s supply of oil be
exhausted? The best one-word answer: Never. Since the human
race began to use minerals, there has been eternal struggle —
stingy nature versus inquisitive mankind. The payoff is the
price of the mineral, and mankind has won big, so far.”
One of the main arguments presented here is that you can’t ignore the effect of prices on oil production and discovery. As prices go up, it becomes more and more economical to recover oil that had previously been disregarded as being unsalvageable.
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